Without Nukes, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan May Be Doomed
Taiwan’s existence is imperiled without a nuclear deterrent it can directly control, but so too are Japan and South Korea vulnerable, because the US cannot be counted on as an ally over the long-haul.
Bill Collier, Predictive Analysis- Depending on the United States has left many a country floundering on the rocks as, when push came to shove, the US, thanks to its inherently flawed version of modern “democracy” with its wild and unstable swings fueled by shallow propaganda aimed at gullible voters, turns its back on old friends. The precipitous, chaotic US withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq, for instance, left almost all the locals who had collaborated with the Americans exposed and in danger, for instance.
The US withdrawal from Vietnam was capped by the now infamous photo of a US helicopter flying out a few escapees as the Viet Cong closed in. Not only did the US leave Vietnam chaotically, the US stopped supporting South Vietnam and allowed the Communist invasion to overtake their former allies, this after over 50,000 US service members perished in fighting FOR South Vietnam’s independence from the Communist Bloc.
As for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, their status as Front-Line States against China and its aggresive communist imperialist leaves them vulnerable as soon as the US decides to sacrifice them or loses interest in their defense. Relying on the US nuclear shield or military presence, these three states would be extremely vulnerable on their own.
In the event China siezes Taiwan, which would likely be a lightening and overwhelming operation that would see the Chinese descend on their tiny neighbor en masse, both South Korea and Japan would be outflanked. If the US gives ground over Taiwan, a possibility given the collaborationist Democrats whose ideological sympathy is with Beijing, neither Japan nor South Korea would have an answer to Chinese aggression.
The only guarantee these states would have is to cooperate fully with one one another in a close alliance aimed at producing a nuclear deterrent. No matter what these states do, sans the US military presence they cannot muster enough conventional forces to stop a determined Chinese attack. Moreover, the balance of power will continue to turn against them. But with a nuclear deterrent and a willingness to use it, China would have to choice but to come to terms with their neighbors.
The knee-jerk opposition to the “proliferation of nuclear weapons”, mostly by states that have nuclear weapons, seems to equate “peace” with this effort. But nuclear weapons have not led to war and will not lead to war as mutual assured destruction keeps warlike intentions in check. The North Korean regime would already be gone but for the Chinese nuclear umbrella in the past while, today, even the Chinese are hesitant to replace the Kim family regime because North Korea has nuclear weapons.
It is possible, albeit not highly probable, that these three states have already secretly begun talks, if not technical efforts, to develop nuclear weapons. The problem is that the present South Korean leader, Moon Jae-in, and his Democrats, have largely favored a rapprochement with China over North Korea and, while this has not played a significant role in the upcoming election in March 2022, it may be reversed soon as the more conservative People’s Power Party is poised to win.
With South Korea roiled by scandals and led by a collaborationist Party, whose leftwing views comport with the “Chinese model”, the likelihood of South Korea joining a secret effort of this nature is slim. Indeed, the wonder of it all may also be the failure of Australia and New Zealand, the next targets if Taiwan falls and both Japan and South Korea are forced to concede ground, to develop their own nuclear weapons programs.
The cooperation of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea to obtain nuclear weapons would be a logical response to Chinese aggression, but if such a program were ever leaked prior to actualization, it would no doubt trigger a violent Chinese response which the US may feel they cannot morally counter. After all, China could claim such a program represents an existential threat to its regime and, in truth, if these three powers did go nuclear it could actually thoroughly and finally bottle China up in a manner that ensures its eventual economic collapse.
No power more than India has any more reason to support the nuclear arming of these three states. Indeed, in an extemely unlikely but not impossible scenario, India could decide to actually station nuclear weapons in Taiwan, unveiling them on the heels of some formal declaration by Taiwan of a sort of Independence. It is doubtful Tawain, which sees the eventual reunification of China under its form of government as its long-term goal, would concede its claims by declaring “independence”, but it could, with a nuclear umbrella, assert independence and regain formal recognition by some countries as the legitimate successor state to the Qing Dynasty, which it displaced in 1911-12.
It should be noted that the Chinese communist party has never won any free and fair election and only 1 in 16 Chinese actually belong to the Party, which won by force, backed by the Soviets, as Americans betrayed the Republic of China (RoC). The Communists took over by force in 1949 and have ruled by force since then. Never have the Chinese Communists won the popular vote in anything approaching any kind of free and fair elections.
The way the US betrayed the RoC, the way the US left South Vuetnam and abandoned its friends in Afghanistan and Iraq, leaving them to their fate, should serve as a warning to these front-line states that dependency on the Americans is a foolhardy plan.
The possibility is there that one or more of these states already has a very secret nuclear weapons program underway, but unless they do, and soon, the probability is that all three will eventually be made to bow before the spector of Chinese communist imperialism.
In the end, either these states will obtain a nuclear deterrent on their own or, eventually, they will be forced to come under the sway of China in some capacity and effectively lose their sovereignty.